St. Joseph-Ogden head coach Kiel Duval watches the Spartans during first half action in their home game against Williamsville in 2019. After undergoing COVID-19 protocols resulting in the cancellation of one contest and rescheduling of another last week, he and the SJO squad are ready start playing basketball tonight.
Photo: PhotoNews Media/Clark Brooks
Game day.
With barely a month left in an already shortened basketball season season due the pandemic, tonight the St. Joseph-Ogden boys basketball team will finally be able to run the floor, drill three-point shots, haul in rebounds and foul a couple of players.
Are they ready to play? You bet.
"It's exciting. I'm excited for the kids," said head coach Kiel Duval. "They have been waiting for this for a long time. It has been a roller coaster year for them to say the least. I told them tonight - there will be nerves. We are going to make mistakes."
The delay from the typical November start, COVID protocols, wearing masks and a canceled week of competition will be unforgettable in the lives of tonight's players.
The lads from SJO open their season against Rantoul at home tonight. The Eagles with two games under their belt, both resulting in losses, dropped their first game 64-42 to Champaign Central and suffered a 68-37 loss to Prairie Central last night.
"I do think this will be a game they remember for a long time because of the road it took to get here," Duval said. A math teacher at the school, he was a three-sport athlete for the Spartans.
Is there a reason to be a little nervous at this point?
Sure. With hours to go until the opening pass - there are not tipoffs under COVID rules, a positive test from one or more player on either team between now and then could jeapordize tonight's conference game between the two schools. Fingers are cross tightly, for whatever good it will do, there are fans, players and coaches hoping that it doesn't happen.
The first interview of the season, I asked Coach Duval what I should be writing about or looking at that no one else is talking about. Here is what he said:
Ty Pence is going to draw a lot of attention every night. The guys that are out there with him are starting to understand that his attention he draws will give them opportunities. What will be interesting to me is what guys step up to be "Robin" each night.
Honestly, your guess is as good as mine. There are multiple guys that can score, but which one it will be on a given night - I have no clue. The next question that we have been asking ourselves is which guy is going to be our "lockdown" defender. We've always had one. Every team as far back as I can remember. It has been what has made this program special over the years. We are searching.
We have ideas of guys that have the ability. It comes down to if they want to do it for 32 minutes consistently. That part is tough. "How bad do you want to be really good?" is a question we ask them all the time.
The Spartans is a team full of youth. There's going to be some aches and pains as inexperienced varsity players and their cohort matures.
"We have a lot of guys that need to figure out how to play at a varsity level. It is very different going from freshman to jv to varsity," Duval explained. "The transition is huge. I think our goal should be to make strides and improve each day. For us to have a chance to be successful at all in the future our guys need to grow together now. This time together is critical."
Andrew Beyers see action for the Spartans during the team's 2019 home game against Paxton-Buckley-Loda, who will join the Illini Prairie Conference this fall. Duval expects down the road, opponents will be intimidated by his speed and quickness.
Photo: PhotoNews Media/Clark Brooks
The departure of the Class of 2020 took left ten openings for the 2020-21 season. Only two players, Ty Pence, whose play has already earned him an offer from Western Illinois University in Macomb, and Cameron Costa.
"We do not have a lot of varsity experience," Duval said. "In my mind, we have 7 starters."
The seven, who hope to become magnificent this season are Ty Pence, Andrew Beyers, Lukas Hutcherson, Jackson Rydell, Evan Ingram, Cameron Costa and Hayden Brazelton. Duval said the goal for him and his coaching staff is to help all seven "find their voice."
"There will be other guys that will have roles that will likely grow throughout the year, but these seven will likely play significant minutes early," Duval said highlighting the talent on the team. "They all have strengths individually, but they are figuring out in practice they are much better when they play together.
"When they communicate. When they pick each other up. Show leadership. I'm hoping by the end of the year they grow as leaders and develop toughness that will help them far past basketball."
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In addition to Pence, there are three players Duval is anxious to measure, mold and see mature.
"Hutcherson will handle the point guard spot for us most nights. He has really looked like a senior in practice," he said. "He is very easy to root for."
Then there is a "quiet and reserve", 6-2 junior forward to watch.
"Andrew Beyers is a kid that is very skilled, but you would never guess it. When he really gets his basketball legs under him, people will hate guarding him," Duval said about Beyers' future and the potential impact he will have on the program. "He has a refuse-to-quit mentality on the offensive glass."
Then, there is another junior, Evan Ingram, who "has the makings to be a very good high school basketball player".
Duval said, "We are still working on him everyday to understand all the aspects of the game to be great. He has grown. He has become more coachable each day."
A junior varsity game starting at 6:30p will precede tonight's 8pm varsity game. Both St. Joseph-Ogden and Rantoul fans can watch both Illini Prairie Conference games via live stream on the NFHS network.
This story originally reported St. Joseph-Ogden's opening game as a home game. An oversight on the editor's part, this game was originally scheduled and played as an away game. We regret this error.
Jillian Plotner finished 67th overall out of a field of 90 long distance runners at the Florida State University Winter XC Classic in Tallahassee. A freshman with the University of Tennessee-Martin, the former St. Joseph-Ogden cross country specialist finished the women's 6000m event at 25:08.6 to help the Skyhawks to a seventh place finish on Friday, February 5.
Plotner and UT-M run again on February 19 at the Golden Eagle Invitational hosted by Tennessee Tech in Cookeville.
Brooks' season nears start at Eureka College
Jordan Brooks is just nine days away from hoping to see action as one of the newest members of the Red Devils of Eureka College. The program's first game of the season is a home game against Spalding College on February 20.
A junior college transfer from Lincoln Land College in Lincoln, IL, he started all 31 games for the Loggers. He averaged 10.5 points per game and was a proficient shooter delivering point on 40% of his attempts.
Brooks is currently one of St. Joseph-Ogden's top 25 career scorers with 786 points amassed during his three-year varsity career. The 2018 graduate is #4 in the Spartans career 3-pt shots made list after burying 176 of them.
Knudsen bestowed 2nd CCIW P-O-W
Philo native and Unity High School basketball product Elyce Knudsen collected College Conference of Illinois & Wisconsin player of the week recognition for a second straight week.
She earned the well-deserved honors after scoring 23 points and padding her stats during a 90-82 road win over Illinois Wesleyan on February 4. The rising Big Blue star had five rebounds, four assists and five steals in that game.
Two days later in Millikan's 73-51 win at Carthage on February 6, tallied 13 points, five rebounds, two assists and one steal to lift the team's record to 4-1.
Kylie Decker in Eastern's top 5 at cross country meet
Kylie Decker finished in ninth place overall at the Eastern Illinois Spring Meet last Saturday. The EIU freshman from Philo crossed the finish line at 19:32.4 to give the Panthers' cross country program the team trophy in the 5k race.
Thanks to Decker, Eastern Illinois tallied with 26 points in the team standings. Southeast Missouri came in second with 47 points followed by DePaul in third and Saint Louis fourth in fourth place.
One other former Unity cross country runner was in the field of 41 runners at the event. Audrey Hancock, a sophomore in Pre-Nursing and Tolono native, finished in 28th place at 20:44.2.
Know a Unity or St. Joseph-Ogden graduate playing at the collegiate level? Let us know their name, sport(s) and where they are playing. An email or a link to their social media account for interviews is a big help, too. Send The Sentinel a message to us at sports@oursentinel.com.
On yet another frigid polar vortex evening in central Illinois, the St. Joseph-Ogden girls basketball team quickly caught fire outscoring host St. Thomas More 16-9 in the opening quarter of their Illini Prairie Conference game on Tuesday. The Spartan bench proved they can bring just as much heat as the team's five starters after defeating the Sabers on road, 67-33.
Junior Abby Behrens, who was not among the starting five, led all scorers with a game-high 14 points thanks to a three-pointer in the second quarter and two more after the break in the third. She, along with two other players, Peyton Jones and Alyssa Hamilton, combined for 24 bench points.
"Abby is sneaky," said head coach Kevin Taylor on Behrens' ability to deceive opposing players. "She has a laid back attitude but has been playing really good on the ball defense and knows how to score on the offensive side as well. She can drive or shoot the open shot."
Meanwhile, starter Payton Vallee scored 10 of her 12 points in the first half to help give SJO a nine-point lead at halftime. Taylor was happy to see the senior step up and take the opportunity to lead.
"Vallee helps this team with her experience and leadership. She has been very reliable over the years," he said. "But (she) is also a very smart competitor on the floor."
The Sabers were paced by Emma Dovocelle's 13 points. Kennedy Ramshaw added 10 point effort and Bridget Delorenza's five points rounded out the host's top three scorers.
Taylor pointed out improvement on his squad's defensive effort on Tuesday.
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"The girls played better overall defense last night," he said. The Sabers boasted several players with the speed and agility to pose a serious threat in the Illini Prairie Conference game. "We knew they would be quick and would look to drive the lane while still shooting some threes.
"I think we settled in after making some early fouls and kept them from driving or shooting over the top of us."
Two things that has impressed Taylor so far this season is how well players are fairing under the current pandemic protocols.
"I am impressed with how the girls are adapting to the new rules. Mainly wearing a mask while playing," Taylor said. "But, what impresses me the most so far is the depth of this team. (We have) several girls (that) are contributing."
The Spartans are back on the floor of the Main Gym at home Thursday night against the Rantoul Eagles with Behrens and Vallee hoping to extend the team's undefeated record on more game. The JV contest is slated to begin at 5:30pm, varsity tipoff is at 7pm. Both games can be watch via live stream on the NFHS Network.
Box Score
St. Joseph-Ogden
16
9
14
13
- 52
St. Thomas More
9
5
7
10
- 31
St. Joseph-Ogden
Taylor Campbell 0 (0) 0-0 -- 0, Payton Jacob 0 (1) 0-0 -- 3, Taylor Wells 2 (0) 0-0 -- 4, Atleigh Hamilton 2 (0) 1-1 -- 5, Taylor Hug 0 (0) 0-0 -- 0, Abby Behrens 2 (3) 1-2 -- 14, Isabell Smith 0 (0) 0-0 -- 0, Peyton Jones 2 (1) 1-2 -- 8, Alyssa Hamilton 1 (0) 0-1 -- 2, Payton Vallee 6 (0) 0-2 -- 12, Ella Armstrong 1 (0) 2-4 -- 4.
St. Joseph-Ogden
C. Leibach 0 (0) 0-1 -- 0, T. Devriese 0 (0) 0-0 -- 0, A. Dickerson 0 (0) 1-2 -- 1, B. Delorenza 1 (1) 0-0 -- 5, E. Devocelle 2 (2) 3-4 -- 13, M. Swisher 0 (0) 0-0 -- 0, S. Gileas 1 (0) 0-0 -- 2, G. Kreps 0 (0) 0-2 -- 0, C. Monahan 0 (0) 0-0 -- 0, K. Ramshaw 4 (0) 2-7 -- 10, E. Graham 0 (0) 0-0 -- 0, C. Pembele 0 (0) 0-0 -- 0.
Blake Primmer takes a well-deserved drink during a break in the action at the 2019 Spartan Kickoff. The St. Joseph-Ogden football team ran a short scrimmage session for parents and fans to get a preview of the upcoming season on August 23, 2019. Practices for the 2020-21 season start March 3. It won't be nearly this balmy when SJO plays their first game since the November 2 playoff game at Williamsville on March 20 this year on the road against Illinois Valley Central.
African-American Children Are Brilliant in Mathematics: Why Don't the Numbers Agree?
Unfortunately, African-American K-12 students have become familiar with the achievement gap narrative, suggesting there are disparities in their ability to learn math compared to their non-African-American peers. Further, they are more likely to be taught by underprepared teachers who often struggle with Mathematics Common Core Standards, specifically how to teach the content in a relevant and engaging way.
Many African-American students arrive home from school seeking additional mathematics support. They often encounter parents/caregivers who have developed a phobia (and trauma) around mathematics due to similar classroom experiences. In some regards, African-American communities perceive an inherent deficiency in math abilities, specifically in the K-12 context—this is absolutely untrue.
Although a year-end mathematics assessment does not indicate a students' capacity to succeed in college or life, it provides some insight into how formalized K-12 classroom settings support them. Among all subgroups (e.g., Asian, Asian/Pacific Islander, Hispanic, Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander, Two or More Races), African-American fourth and eighth-graders performed the lowest in mathematics National Assessment of Educational Progress (also known as the Nation's Report Card).
The overall score equates to below basic level of understanding of mathematical content. If these patterns continue, roughly 80% of African-American students attending public schools will require some form of intervention to succeed in entry-level college coursework after high school.
It is essential to note implicit biases in curricula developed primarily by white males who have little to no connection with the students reading their textbooks. Year-end assessments (including how questions are framed), emphasizing individual knowledge rather than collective/collaborative efforts to engage the content, continue to baffle African-American students. Furthermore, instructional practices are often mundane and offer minimal enjoyable moments.
Collectively, we can shift the paradigm for African-American students.
Math classrooms have become hostile learning spaces. African-American K-12 learners resent their teachers, loathe the subject matter, and look forward to activities and courses to thrive and realize how the content can be beneficial for them both now and in the future. So, how do we revisit and begin to reconceptualize how African-American children perceived their mathematical abilities?
As African-American students experience math, parents/caregivers, communities, and schools must acknowledge (repeatedly) that African-American students are brilliant. They deserve constant encouragement and a reminder of their rich history with mathematics.
The first mathematicians were African. Northern Africans created the first innovative mathematical tool (the Ishango Bone), Katherine Johnson, Mary Jackson, and Dorothy Vaughan (African-American women featured in the movie Hidden Figures) elevated NASA to innovative technological advancements unseen.
Parents/caregivers, communities, and schools must collaborate to empower students to realize their gifts. Robert Moses, the Algebra Project creator, adopted the 1960s political community organizing a framework to promote mathematics literacy for students. It involved a collective response to an emerging challenge; therefore, he offered a practical guide to mathematics, including manipulatives, games, and drumming to engage students in math learnings.
Games such as Dominoes, Spades, and Uno are favorites among African-American families, and they require advanced Number Sense. Why not have a game night to showcase how parents/caregivers have thrived in these activities. Additionally, fantasy leagues, e.g., points per game, rebounds per game, assist, and free throws, provide enjoyable opportunities to showcase the appreciation of numbers.
In collaboration with Drs. Ernest Black, Fred Uy, and Patrice Waller, the California State University system, and CalStateTEACH have developed a Math Literacy Project to support Elementary School teachers' efficacy and ability to offer students culturally rich learning opportunities. Currently, partnering with over 200 educators at ISANA Academies to enhance their math instructional practice. The outcome will lead to African-American students' greater affinity and appreciation of math.
Collectively, we can shift the paradigm for African-American students.
They are too gifted and precious to allow the disdain for math to continue. Let's take action, strengthen our resolve, and become active in our intent to support them. If we let them down, we face an uncertain future. However, if we lean in to ensure that they are empowered, the Hidden Figures of the past will rise again as conscientious contributors of a math affirming environment for African-American children.
Dr. Kirk Kirkwood is the Southern California Regional Director of CalStateTEACH, the California State University System's statewide credential program. He is also Executive Director at Village Life Education. He earned his PhD in P – 12 Educational Leadership from California State University, Fullerton.
Unity's home game against Paris last Friday was a textbook case of a tale of every other quarter.
After a solid first quarter of play and leading on the scoreboard 12-10, missed second quarter scoring opportunities led to an eventual 67-33 loss in non-conference action with the visiting Tigers.
Damian Knoll tied the game at 7-all midway into the first quarter and Will Cowan scored the go-ahead tip in to give Unity a two-point advantage early in the game. A couple of exchanges later, Cowan drilled a trey from the southeast corner of the floor for a 12-7 Rocket lead.
With it much too early to roll over and lie, Paris' Zach Farnham answers with three pointer for his team to close out the quarter trailing, 12-10.
Paris quickly tied the game at twelves in the second quarter on a shot from Jude Sullivan and then the Rockets' shoot woes surfaced. The Tigers outscored Unity, who made just one of the 13 shots in the frame, 23-4. Paris, on the other hand, sunk eight of their 13 attempts in the same period.
After a respectable third quarter effort yielding 13 points, Unity mustered just four in the final quarter of the contest.
Three players had seven opportunities from the free throw line, to their team's detriment went unconverted.
Despite the team's overall shooting deficiency, Brady Porter led Unity's scoring effort with 13 points. Cowan and Austin Langendorf chipped in another five points apiece.
Three seniors did the bulk of the heavy shooting for the Tigers. Sullivan, who scored the majority of his points in the second and third quarters of the game, finished the night with a game-high 17 points. Garrett King contributed 12 points and Mason Hutchings rounded out the top scorers on the visiting team with 8 points.
The Rockets play at home again on Friday night hosting Pontiac for another Illini Prairie Conference game this week. The varsity game is scheduled to start 7pm. Fans can catch the game on the NFHS Network.
St. Joseph-Ogden's Rachael Graham pulls ahead of Monticello's MacKenzie Westwater and East Central's Alison Vogel in the prelims of the 100-meter dash at the 2008 Unity Girls Invitational Track Meet on April 11, 2008, in Tolono. Frigid temperatures along with strong gusts out of the west made for difficult running conditions for track athletes that Friday. The St. Joseph-Ogden girls' track team finished the annual meet in sixth-place. Graham later finished the finals in 8th-place.
A little more than two minutes into their first basketball game in almost a year, the Spartans girls basketball team was staring a 7-0 deficit on the scoreboard in the face against visiting Villa Grove last Thursday. It looked as if St. Joseph-Ogden was going to have a dogfight on their hands.
Trailing 7-0, SJO's Ella Armstrong turned up the heat starting with a three-pointer from near the top of key to put a few digits on the SJO side of the scoreboard. Responsible for her team's first seven points of the season, the junior came off the bench to finish with a team-high 15 points to lead the Spartans to a 47-33 win over the Blue Devils.
Nearly midpoint in the first period, Armstrong drew a foul on an attempted 360-degree spin lay up after picking up a loose ball in Villa Grove territory and dribbling down the floor. Sinking both free throws, SJO trailed by two.
Several possessions later the Spartans tied up the contest at 7-all on an pass inside the paint from Taylor Wells to Armstrong.
Later, Wells goes to the free throw line and knocks down a pair to put the St. Joseph-Ogden up by two. With a perfect 3-for-3 performance from the charity stripe, the junior contributed five points in to first victory of the year.
After another eight minutes of play, the two teams entered their locker rooms with SJO enjoying 21-17 advantage.
The Spartans returned to the floor and dominated the floor in the third quarter. Five SJO players combined for 18 points while Villa Grove hit just three shots for a total of just eight points.
Villa Grove's Kayleigh Block led all scorers with 18 points. Teammates Vanessa Wright and Kaylee Arbuckler finished with nine and six points
respectively to complete the Blue Devil's scoring effort.
Behind Armstrong's team-high point production, fellow junior Payton Jacob finish the night with 10 points. Alyssa Hamilton and Wells chipped in five points apiece. Senior Atleigh Hamilton, like Wells, made 100% of her shots from the free throw line, was good for four points.
The Spartans are at home again on Thursday, when they host the Rantoul Eagles. The junior varsity contest is scheduled to begin at 5:30p and the varsity game at 7p.
Kimberly Capagalan [right] and Abriel Shipley, both from St. Joseph, race through a heavy downpour and flooded school parking lot on their way to their graduation ceremony at St. Joseph-Ogden High School. The two seniors and 104 other students made up the Class 2007 graduating on May 27, 2007.
by Caroline Chen, ProPublica
On Jan. 29, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo was promoting "marital bliss" at a coronavirus news conference.
Announcing that indoor dining would reopen at 25% capacity in New York City on Valentine's Day, and wedding receptions could also resume with up to 150 people a month after, Cuomo suggested: "You propose on Valentine’s Day and then you can have the wedding ceremony March 15, up to 150 people. People will actually come to your wedding because you can tell them, with the testing, it will be safe. … No pressure, but it's just an idea."
Cuomo isn't alone in taking measures to loosen pandemic-related restrictions. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer allowed indoor dining to resume at 25% capacity starting Feb. 1. Idaho Gov. Brad Little increased limits on indoor gatherings from 10 to 50 people. Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker is raising business capacity from 25% to 40%, including at restaurants and gyms. California Gov. Gavin Newsom lifted stay-at-home orders on Jan. 25.
To justify their reopening decisions, governors point to falling case counts. "We make decisions based on facts," Cuomo said. "New York City numbers are down."
But epidemiologists and public health experts say a crucial factor is missing from these calculations: the threat of new viral variants. One coronavirus variant, which originated in the United Kingdom and is now spreading in the U.S., is believed to be 50% more transmissible. The more cases there are, the faster new variants can spread. Because the baseline of case counts in the U.S. is already so high — we’re still averaging about 130,000 new cases a day — and because the spread of the virus grows exponentially, cases could easily climb past the 300,000-per-day peak we reached in early January if we underestimate the variants, experts said.
Furthermore, study after study has identified indoor spaces — particularly restaurants, where consistent masking is not possible — as some of the highest-risk locations for transmission to occur. Even with distanced tables, case studies have shown that droplets can travel long distances within dining establishments, sometimes helped along by air conditioning.
Let’s pretend that politicians wake up and don’t reopen restaurants and we avoid a big wave in March. Then we’re running downhill on the vaccines because the pipeline gets better and better. Then we can get our lives back.
We’re just in the opening stage of the new variants’ arrival in the United States. Experts say we could speed viruses’ spread by providing them with superspreading playgrounds or slow them down by starving them of opportunities to replicate.
"We’re standing at an inflection point," said Sam Scarpino, assistant professor at Northeastern University and director of the school’s Emergent Epidemics Lab. Thanks to the arrival of vaccines, he said, "we finally have the chance right now to bring this back under control, but if we ease up now, we may end up wasting all the effort we put in."
Dr. Luciana Borio, an infectious disease physician who was a member of the Biden-Harris transition team’s COVID-19 advisory board, put it more bluntly at a
congressional hearing on Feb. 3. "Our worst days could be ahead of us," she said.
I interviewed 10 scientists for this story and was surprised by the vehemence of some of their language. "Are you sure it could be that bad?" I asked, over and over.
Once in a while, when a virus replicates, a mistake occurs, and a letter in the strand of RNA is copied inaccurately. That’s called a mutation.
They unanimously said they expected B.1.1.7, the variant first discovered in the U.K., to eventually become the dominant version of coronavirus in the U.S. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has estimated that B.1.1.7 will become dominant in March, using a model that presumes it’s 50% more transmissible than the original "wildtype" coronavirus. The model’s transmission rate was based on experience in the U.K., which first detected B.1.1.7 in September and saw an increase in cases that became apparent in December, straining hospitals despite stringent closures and stay-at-home orders. So while our country appears relatively B.1.1.7-free right now, the situation could look drastically different in a matter of months.
Experts are particularly concerned because we don’t have a handle on exactly how far B.1.1.7 has spread. Our current surveillance system sequences less than 1% of cases to see whether they are a variant.
Throwing an even more troubling wrench into the mix is that B.1.1.7 is continuing to morph. Just this week, scientists discovered that some B.1.1.7 coronaviruses in Britain had picked up a key change, known as the E484K mutation. That mutation had previously been found in the B.1.351 variant, which was first discovered in South Africa. Scientists have hypothesized that it’s the E484K mutation that has reduced the efficacy of some vaccines in South African trials, so this is incredibly worrying news.
"It’s really hard to thread this needle without sounding like a prophet of doom," said Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at Georgetown University’s Center for Global Health Science and Security. While vaccines bring hope, she said, governors who are moving to expand indoor dining are "completely reckless"; if they don’t course correct, "I don’t think it’s hyperbolic to say the worst could be yet to come."
The choices that our federal and state leaders make right at this moment will determine if we can bend the curve once and for all and start ending the pandemic, or if we ride the rollercoaster into yet another surge, this one fueled by a viral enemy harder to fight than ever before.
All of us have agency in deciding this narrative, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, stressed. "Certainly you need to be prepared for the possibility that things might get worse in the light of the variants, but that is not inevitable because there are things that we can do to mitigate against it,” he said in an interview. “We're not helpless observers of our own fate."
Fauci urged states to "double down on your public health measures … to have virtually everybody wear masks, to have everyone maintain social distance, to have everybody avoid congregate settings, and to have everybody wash their hands very frequently."
And don’t wait until it’s too late, warned Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
"We are so good at pumping the brakes after we’ve wrapped the car around the tree," he said. The new variants aren’t being complacent. "There’s still a lot of human wood out there for this coronavirus to burn."
To understand the epidemiologists’ warnings, it helps to understand what variants are, how they have been behaving and our limitations in knowing exactly how far they have spread.
People have a bad habit of anthropomorphizing the coronavirus: ascribing human-like intentions to it, as if a microbe can discern that we finally have a vaccine and try to evade it. But viruses don’t really have any schemes; they just reproduce. "Coronaviruses are a single strand of RNA in a sac of fat," epidemiologist Larry Brilliant reminded me. "They’re preprogrammed to replicate and continue replicating. That’s their job."
Once in a while, when a virus replicates, a mistake occurs, and a letter in the strand of RNA is copied inaccurately. That’s called a mutation. Many times, those mutations are neutral. Sometimes they are detrimental to the virus, and that lineage will quickly die off. Other times, they’re beneficial to the virus in some way, such as by making it more transmissible. When a version of the virus becomes functionally different, that’s when scientists consider it a variant.
As of Feb. 4, according to the CDC, the U.S. has found 611 cases of B.1.1.7, the variant first discovered in the United Kingdom, five cases of B.1.351, first identified in South Africa, and two cases of P.1., first identified in Brazil. But that’s almost certainly an undercount.
Part of the reason why epidemiologists are advocating for us to stay hunkered down is because the U.S. doesn’t know exactly where all the variant cases are.
The term that public health uses is "surveillance." I like to think of it as having eyes on the virus. In order to have good eyes on where coronavirus infections are in general, all you need is the regular swab tests that we’re all familiar with. But in order to tell whether a positive case is the wildtype coronavirus or one of the more nasty variants, an additional step is needed: genomic sequencing. For that, the sample needs to be sent on to a lab that has specialized machinery capable of conducting sequencing.
Until recently, sequencing in the U.S. was a patchwork effort, conducted by a mix of academic and public health agency labs keen to track the evolution of the coronavirus. Though the CDC hosted a
weekly call where those scientists already conducting sequencing could compare notes, there was no dedicated federal funding or coordination to ensure that samples were routinely gathered from across the country.
Today, the U.S. sequences less than 1% of its total cases. This is a pittance compared to the U.K., which sequences around 8-10% of its positive test results. But volume alone isn’t the only thing that matters. Representation, meaning where the samples come from, is another crucial factor. Since most of the sequencing so far has come from voluntary efforts, the U.S. has suffered from uneven visibility, with a whole bunch of eyeballs in parts of the country that are biotechnology and academic hubs, like Boston, San Francisco and San Diego, and less in “surveillance deserts” like North and South Dakota. There, barely any samples have been sequenced at all, even when those states had explosions of COVID-19 cases.
Dr. Phil Febbo is chief medical officer at Illumina, one of the world’s biggest sequencing technology companies. Like so many parts of the coronavirus response, keeping a lookout for variants has suffered from a lack of federal leadership, Febbo said. As early as March of last year, Illumina representatives began meeting with federal agencies, advocating for a national genomic surveillance system.
"We talked to any three-lettered agency we could," Febbo said. "Those conversations were cordial: They said they heard what we were saying, but then they’d say, ‘But we need more tests, but can you do it in five minutes, can it be point-of-care?’" It wasn’t until Dec. 18, when B.1.1.7 was taking off in the United Kingdom, that Illumina finally got a call from the CDC offering to sign a contract with the company. (Since December, CDC has engaged Illumina to do surveillance work by signing twocontracts potentially worth up to $4.6 million.)
Today, Illumina sequences positive samples that are passed on from a diagnostic testing company, Helix. Each RNA strand of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has about 30,000 nucleotides, each represented by one of four letters. Illumina’s sequencers read through each sample’s code and compare each letter to a reference sequence, looking for significant changes. The data gets passed back to the CDC, which uses location data stripped of personal identifiers to map the spread of any variants that Illumina has picked up.
The CDC said it has contracted with several large commercial companies with the goal of sequencing up to 6,000 samples a week by mid-February. Through another program, called the National SARS-CoV-2 Strain Surveillance System, state public health labs are supposed to send a total of 1,500 samples to the agency every other week. This program went into effect on Jan. 25 and is still ramping up, according to a CDC spokesperson.
Febbo says more can be done to increase surveillance. He notes that the Biden administration, while clearly more invested in variant surveillance than the Trump administration, hasn’t set a public target in the same way it has for vaccinations with its "100 million shots" campaign. Illumina estimates that sequencing 5% of all samples would allow us to be confident that we are catching all variants of concern, and he would like the Biden administration to make that a public goal. It can be done, Febbo says: "It hasn’t been the lack of capacity, it’s been the lack of will."
Having clearer information about where variants are would give governors and local officials actual information with which to make decisions. Then they could say with confidence, "We can open indoor dining because we know that the variants aren’t circulating in our community." Absent that information, the only thing we can do is act like the variants are here.
The good news is that so far, the vaccines that have been made available to the public appear to be reasonably effective against the coronavirus variants. They may be slightly less effective against B.1.351, the variant discovered in South Africa, but none of the variants are total "escapes," so a vaccine should offer you at least partial protection against any form of the coronavirus you encounter.
All of the available shots give your immune system some familiarity with the virus, allowing it to be more prepared to meet the bug in the wild, whether it’s the original strain or a variant. Having a savvier immune system, in turn, means that even if you do get infected, you’re less likely to need to be hospitalized, and less likely to die.
"Regardless of what’s happening with this variant, we’re much better with [people’s immune systems] seeing SARS-CoV-2 after seeing the vaccine than not," said Derek Cummings, a biology professor at the University of Florida’s Emerging Pathogens Institute.
However, we’re not very far along with vaccinations yet. As of Feb. 4, only 2.1% of the U.S. population had been reported to have received both doses of the vaccine; 8.5% had received one dose. That means we’re in a precarious moment right now where the vast majority of the U.S. hasn’t had a chance to get protected, and the variants have a window to multiply. (Of course, those who have already gotten sick with COVID-19 have natural immunity, but some scientists are concerned that those who develop only mild symptoms may not gain as much innate immunity as those who receive a vaccine.)
Of the scientists I talked to, Caitlin Rivers, a computational epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, was the most optimistic about a potential variant-fueled surge. "I do think that B.1.1.7 has the possibility to precipitate a wave, but it probably won’t be as bad as the last wave, because we have a lot of preexisting immunity and we are rolling out the vaccines," she said. Thanks to the vaccines, the U.S. will have more population immunity by March, when the CDC predicts B.1.1.7 will become dominant, than the U.K. did when the variant hit there late last year. "It’s a low likelihood that we will have a gigantic fourth wave, but not impossible," she said.
Still, Rivers said, "now is not the time to relax." She, too, was critical of state policies to loosen restrictions. "When you create the same conditions that allowed the last surge, you should expect the same results," she said. “Our main move should be to reduce transmission as much as possible while we vaccinate as much as possible."
Time is not on our side, as the morphing B.1.1.7 variant showed us when it picked up the E484K mutation. While we are lucky that our vaccines still work against the current variants, we have to keep in mind that in this race between vaccines and variants, the variants aren’t staying static.
The big fear is that eventually, a variant will come along that provides the virus with a complete immune escape, preventing our vaccines from working against it. Even though we can update our vaccines, that would take time. The only way to guarantee that the virus won’t mutate into a variant that our current vaccines don’t cover is to lower transmission significantly, said genomic epidemiologist Alli Black: “The virus will continue to mutate as it continues to spread. We’re not going to stop that biological fact unless transmission stops.” And vaccinating everyone quickly is one key way to make it harder for the coronavirus to get from person to person in the first place.
“We need to start responding like the variants are going to take over and they are one of the biggest threats,” said Cummings, “or we won’t have vaccinated enough people when this rolls through.”
Throughout this pandemic, the U.S. has often been in the fortunate position of not being first when it comes to novel viral encounters. We weren’t the country where SARS-CoV-2 originated. We weren’t the place where B.1.1.7 was spawned. We’ve had the opportunity to look to other countries and learn from them, if only we’d choose to.
Epidemiologist after epidemiologist pointed out that the U.K., Denmark and Portugal required drastic measures — the dreaded L word, “lockdown” — to get B.1.1.7 under control. "We’ve seen that multiple different countries in Europe have had to close schools after making it a policy that schools would be the last to close," Rivers, from Johns Hopkins, noted.
If we don’t want the same fate to befall the U.S., now is the time to act, the scientists urged.
Improving surveillance can help. Utah Public Health Laboratory has a robust state sequencing program, analyzing a random sample of cases sent by the state’s two largest hospital groups. Kelly Oakeson, its chief scientist for next generation sequencing and bioinformatics, has set a goal of sequencing 10% of all cases in the state; his lab is currently doing about 3%. They could do more, he said. The only problem is that they don’t have enough pipette tips due to a national shortage. Oakeson said he’s hoping that the Biden administration will leverage the Defense Production Act to produce more pipette tips so he can increase his state’s surveillance capabilities.
“We can’t get transmission down through vaccination alone,” said Rasmussen, the Georgetown virologist. “We need to be encouraging leadership, both at the state and federal levels, to protect people, to have paid sick leave for people if they become symptomatic.”
A restaurant server in New York City, who was laid off early in the pandemic from a high-end steakhouse, told me he understood what the epidemiologists were saying from a scientific point of view. But, he asked, “if you want to shut everything down, who’s going to pay the bills?”
He continued, "In order to do what the epidemiologists want to get done, you can only do that with policies to support the people and make it worth their while to do it." He’s job hunting, and he said that if he was offered a position that put him indoors on Valentine’s Day, “I would have to take it.” He’d put on a double mask and go to work.
Whenever we have options, though, individual decisions can make a difference. Black, the genomic epidemiologist, encouraged everyone to limit travel as much as possible: "It just really facilitates introductions of these circulating variants."
Hang in there, urged Scarpino, the Northeastern professor, painting a hopeful picture: "Cases are coming down, vaccines are going up. Let’s pretend that politicians wake up and don’t reopen restaurants and we avoid a big wave in March. Then we’re running downhill on the vaccines because the pipeline gets better and better. Then we can get our lives back."
That sounded so tantalizing. Dream-worthy. Just a matter of good science-based public policy and collective compliance driving down the case counts until those little mindless RNA-filled fat sacs have nowhere to go, no one to infect, no way to replicate, no chances to mutate. I imagine them bumping around, lost without crowded indoor spaces to breed in, thwarted by vaccine-boosted immune cells, unable to find a host, dwindling, going, gone.
I grew up in Martin county, Kentucky. We were considered one of the poorest counties in the United States. In April, 1964 President Lyndon B. Johnson and his entourage of staff, secret service, media and other politicians swarmed into the county seat of Inez during his war on poverty campaign tour.
Johnson and the entourage rode through our town waving and then proceeded on down route 3, which was less than three miles north of my homeplace. He walked onto the porch of a local family where he did a photo session that would be shown on every media source around the world. I just watched it on YouTube.
He then returned to his Cadillac, came back through Inez and shook a few hands at the courthouse before he boarded his helicopter and left us. He had what he needed which were real pictures of real poverty and a story of real poverty from the hills of East, Kentucky.
There was nothing about Johnson's visit that communicated anything about the white privilege of East, Kentucky. We had never heard of white privilege. We hadn't thought much about privilege or poverty either. I don't think too many of us thought we were poor. We didn't know the difference really. We didn't have anybody telling us that we should be demanding equity with others in the country.
After Johnson flew out, we resumed our normal lifestyles. The family pictured in the photo op continued to have a very difficult life of poverty. Even though they had the President of the United States on their front porch it wasn't enough to save them from lives of poverty and difficult times. President Johnson's intentions were good. He led Congress to pass the Economic Opportunity Act in August, 1964 which was part of his war on poverty effort.
It was a nice gesture.
Unfortunately, families throughout Martin county and East, Kentucky still grappled with poverty after the government money and new programs were approved.
Going to the bathroom meant going outside to a tiny little building built over a hole in the ground. In the winter, trudging snow to go to the bathroom at any hour of the day was cruel.
Common life continued to be living without indoor plumbing. For many people this meant a very difficult life of finding alternative ways to access water. Some people had outdoor wells. They would drop a bailer bucket into a well and "draw" up a bucket of water. Several of my family members had wells of this nature and I remember their water tasting pretty good.
This also meant many families did not have indoor bathrooms. Going to the bathroom meant going outside to a tiny little building built over a hole in the ground. In the winter, trudging snow to go to the bathroom at any hour of the day was cruel.
This also meant taking a bath by collecting water from the well and carrying it into the house which involved a lot of carrying if you were going to take a bath. The same process occurred when washing clothes. Enough water had to be collected to wash and then rinse the clothes. This was a massive job. Does this sound like white privilege?
By the time I was born, my family had indoor plumbing and we had one bathroom. We still had an outdoor toilet that sat out from the house in the back yard. I tore it down a couple of years back. Actually, it was hard to tear it down because I knew it symbolized a very different era of life which too many of us Appalachian people are all too familiar.
We had terrible water as a kid. It was really bad to drink and terrible for washing clothes. The sulfur in the water would ruin our clothes. This meant my mother was always catching rain water in large tubs outside the house. In dry weather when I was a child we would walk to the creek and carry water back to the house one bucket at a time. That always embarrassed me as a kid. I don't know why. Most of the people up and down the creek where I lived had to do the same thing plus many of these people did not have indoor plumbing either. Does this sound like white privilege?
When school was in session at my elementary called Tomahawk, I sat with classmates every day who came to school hungry. The free school lunch program was the only decent meal they ever got to eat. Several boys in our school who did not have indoor plumbing came to school dirty but would often stand in the school bathroom washing their hands and faces before class. I'm sure some girls did the same thing Our little elementary school bathroom was a luxury to them. Does this sound like white privilege?
I hear all this talk about white privilege. Growing up in an inner-city dwelling is surely filled with hardships but these dwellers at least have access to a real kitchen, running water, an indoor bathroom and even television and radio reception. These are luxuries that many Appalachian kids did not have growing up.
Even today, in too many places in East, Kentucky and throughout Appalachia there are still families growing up without indoor bathrooms, access to water and surviving daily hunger. Internet cannot be found in too many Appalachian areas. These are the scenarios that have become ignored by media, government and employers. Thank God it's not even close to what it once was but I've been in the hollers of the mountains and seen enough to know poverty is still real and a cruel existence.
Today, 14 of the 50 poorest counties in the United States are all from the same East Kentucky region that Johnson visited in 1964.
For Martin county, "The per capita income is just over $18,000," according to the 2019 Census reporter. Twenty-six (26.3) percent of the county is still at the poverty level according to Data USA with a median household income of $35,125. The county is 99 percent white. Does this sound like a place of white privilege?
McCreary county is located in the Daniel Boone National Forest in southern Kentucky along the Tennessee state border. The only county nationwide where most households earn less than $20,000 a year, McCreary is the poorest county in both Kentucky and the United States. The life expectancy is just 73 according to USA Today. Does this sound like white privilege?
The Washington Post reported that the life expectancy for the 5thdistrict in Eastern, Kentucky is under 73 making it the shortest life span expectancy in the United States. Owsley County Kentucky's life span expectancy has been reported to be 67.3 years while in San Jose, California the life expectancy is 83.
The white privilege I enjoyed as a kid was that I was fortunate to be raised around hard-working people.
My dad spent four hours a day driving to and from Holden, West Virginia to work in an underground coal mine. He spent over 30 years stooped over, on his knees or on his back in a dark coal mine. He made a living until at the age of 55 his health started failing him and he had to quit.
He and my mother kept food on the table. We raised a garden. We had livestock. My family worked hard. My uncles and aunts farmed and worked whatever jobs they could find to make ends meet. My grandfather and grandmother Hinkle worked in a very small grocery store six days a week until he was 83 and she was 80. They worked hard until they died.
No one had unemployment checks rolling in. No one had Social Security Disability checks. No one was receiving stimulus checks. There weren't food stamps or other federal or state money available to help anyone out. Our family had a mindset to work because that was our only means of surviving.
I have never experienced anything like what some of my American friends have experienced growing up. Or, what some still experience.
I'm certainly not intending to belittle your experiences or trying to "one up you" on who was poorer or had it harder. Just be aware that Appalachia is still filled with hurting, poverty-stricken people of different colors.
Poverty never comes with privilege, regardless of color.
Dr. Glenn Mollette is a syndicated American columnist and author of American Issues, Every American Has An Opinion and ten other books. He is read in all 50 states. The views expressed are those of the author and are not necessarily representative of any other group or organization.
![Kimberly Capagalan [right] and Abriel Shipley brave a downpour to get to their graduation ceremony in 2007.](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_KBYO-6SXUaT3Q606eZVXoCbVxigOD8DHHOgfvVUrTpE-ag6oCGDmzm-8IsVjNPFBdf36TfGRqu6llBFDsWjSWWmutUodwOrbDA8cPNZ_MX4Gvy6PpTo85CD9DPBBXW24_j-Rx8wQbG8/s0-rw/07sjograd022.jpg)
I hear a lot about white privilege.
