Dear Editor, Will the 2026 Midterm elections be conducted in a “free and fair” manner? Could they be compromised in some fashion? Yes, but how?
Harpswell, ME
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by Jenna Schweikert & UIS Public Affairs Reporting
Capitol News Illinois has launched its revamped 2026 Election Guide to coincide with the opening of early voting throughout much of the state.
The guide has a rundown of key dates, information on how to register and vote early, and a lookup tool to put voters in touch with their local election authority. It also links to our coverage of the various races for statewide office.
The guide launched this week to coincide with early voting opening on Feb. 5 for the March 17 primary in most of the state, outside of Cook County. Early voting kicks off on Feb. 12 in downtown Chicago and either Feb. 18 or March 2 in suburban Cook County, depending on where you live. Early voting for all jurisdictions ends on March 16.
Most early voting takes place at the local election authority’s offices, which for most residents is their county clerk’s office. Some churches, libraries, colleges and universities and other government buildings are also offering early voting. Voters can find local polling locations and hours at the Illinois State Board of Elections website.
Registration is also open at most polling locations through Feb. 17. Grace period registration, available at some polling locations, opens Feb. 18 and closes on Election Day, March 17.
Registration is also open online at ova.elections.il.gov until March 1 and will reopen on March 19.
Any voter who needs to register for the first time or file an address change must present two forms of ID, one of which shows the voter's current address.
Valid forms of identification include work, school, state and military ID, passports and drivers licenses, leases and mortgages, utility bills, vehicle registration, credit and debit cards and insurance cards.
Voters who do not present a valid form of ID if needed can cast a provisional ballot and present ID to the election authority by March 24.
ID requirements vary at polling locations, but election authorities recommend bringing at least one form of identification in case of any questions.
Mail-in ballots will also be sent to voters who’ve requested them beginning Feb. 5. The last day to request a mail-in ballot is March 12.
They must be postmarked by Election Day, but county clerks recommend mailing these ballots at least a week in advance of the election, due to United States Postal Service changes that could delay mail.
Election authorities will also accept mail ballots delivered by hand, and some have drop boxes where ballots can be delivered. Voters who requested a mail-in ballot can still vote in person but must surrender the mailed ballot before doing so.
Polls will be open 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Election Day. If voters are in line before the polls close, they are guaranteed a chance to vote.
by Ben Szalinski
by Terri Dee
Sen. Josh Hawley asked OpenAI CEO Sam Altman this question in a May 16, 2023, U.S. Senate hearing on artificial intelligence. Altman replied that he was indeed concerned that some people might use language models to manipulate, persuade and engage in one-on-one interactions with voters.
Altman did not elaborate, but he might have had something like this scenario in mind. Imagine that soon, political technologists develop a machine called Clogger – a political campaign in a black box. Clogger relentlessly pursues just one objective: to maximize the chances that its candidate – the campaign that buys the services of Clogger Inc. – prevails in an election.
While platforms like Facebook, Twitter and YouTube use forms of AI to get users to spend more time on their sites, Clogger’s AI would have a different objective: to change people’s voting behavior.
As a political scientist and a legal scholar who study the intersection of technology and democracy, we believe that something like Clogger could use automation to dramatically increase the scale and potentially the effectiveness of behavior manipulation and microtargeting techniques that political campaigns have used since the early 2000s. Just as advertisers use your browsing and social media history to individually target commercial and political ads now, Clogger would pay attention to you – and hundreds of millions of other voters – individually.
It would offer three advances over the current state-of-the-art algorithmic behavior manipulation. First, its language model would generate messages — texts, social media and email, perhaps including images and videos — tailored to you personally. Whereas advertisers strategically place a relatively small number of ads, language models such as ChatGPT can generate countless unique messages for you personally – and millions for others – over the course of a campaign.
Third, over the course of a campaign, Clogger’s messages could evolve in order to take into account your responses to the machine’s prior dispatches and what it has learned about changing others’ minds. Clogger would be able to carry on dynamic “conversations” with you – and millions of other people – over time. Clogger’s messages would be similar to ads that follow you across different websites and social media.
Three more features – or bugs – are worth noting.
First, the messages that Clogger sends may or may not be political in content. The machine’s only goal is to maximize vote share, and it would likely devise strategies for achieving this goal that no human campaigner would have thought of.
One possibility is sending likely opponent voters information about nonpolitical passions that they have in sports or entertainment to bury the political messaging they receive. Another possibility is sending off-putting messages – for example incontinence advertisements – timed to coincide with opponents’ messaging. And another is manipulating voters’ social media friend groups to give the sense that their social circles support its candidate.
Second, Clogger has no regard for truth. Indeed, it has no way of knowing what is true or false. Language model “hallucinations” are not a problem for this machine because its objective is to change your vote, not to provide accurate information.
Third, because it is a black box type of artificial intelligence, people would have no way to know what strategies it uses.
If the Republican presidential campaign were to deploy Clogger in 2024, the Democratic campaign would likely be compelled to respond in kind, perhaps with a similar machine. Call it Dogger. If the campaign managers thought that these machines were effective, the presidential contest might well come down to Clogger vs. Dogger, and the winner would be the client of the more effective machine.
Political scientists and pundits would have much to say about why one or the other AI prevailed, but likely no one would really know. The president will have been elected not because his or her policy proposals or political ideas persuaded more Americans, but because he or she had the more effective AI. The content that won the day would have come from an AI focused solely on victory, with no political ideas of its own, rather than from candidates or parties.
In this very important sense, a machine would have won the election rather than a person. The election would no longer be democratic, even though all of the ordinary activities of democracy – the speeches, the ads, the messages, the voting and the counting of votes – will have occurred.
The AI-elected president could then go one of two ways. He or she could use the mantle of election to pursue Republican or Democratic party policies. But because the party ideas may have had little to do with why people voted the way that they did – Clogger and Dogger don’t care about policy views – the president’s actions would not necessarily reflect the will of the voters. Voters would have been manipulated by the AI rather than freely choosing their political leaders and policies.
Another path is for the president to pursue the messages, behaviors and policies that the machine predicts will maximize the chances of reelection. On this path, the president would have no particular platform or agenda beyond maintaining power. The president’s actions, guided by Clogger, would be those most likely to manipulate voters rather than serve their genuine interests or even the president’s own ideology.
It would be possible to avoid AI election manipulation if candidates, campaigns and consultants all forswore the use of such political AI. We believe that is unlikely. If politically effective black boxes were developed, the temptation to use them would be almost irresistible. Indeed, political consultants might well see using these tools as required by their professional responsibility to help their candidates win. And once one candidate uses such an effective tool, the opponents could hardly be expected to resist by disarming unilaterally.
Enhanced privacy protection would help. Clogger would depend on access to vast amounts of personal data in order to target individuals, craft messages tailored to persuade or manipulate them, and track and retarget them over the course of a campaign. Every bit of that information that companies or policymakers deny the machine would make it less effective.
Another solution lies with elections commissions. They could try to ban or severely regulate these machines. There’s a fierce debate about whether such “replicant” speech, even if it’s political in nature, can be regulated. The U.S.’s extreme free speech tradition leads many leading academics to say it cannot.
But there is no reason to automatically extend the First Amendment’s protection to the product of these machines. The nation might well choose to give machines rights, but that should be a decision grounded in the challenges of today, not the misplaced assumption that James Madison’s views in 1789 were intended to apply to AI.
European Union regulators are moving in this direction. Policymakers revised the European Parliament’s draft of its Artificial Intelligence Act to designate “AI systems to influence voters in campaigns” as “high risk” and subject to regulatory scrutiny.
One constitutionally safer, if smaller, step, already adopted in part by European internet regulators and in California, is to prohibit bots from passing themselves off as people. For example, regulation might require that campaign messages come with disclaimers when the content they contain is generated by machines rather than humans.
This would be like the advertising disclaimer requirements – “Paid for by the Sam Jones for Congress Committee” – but modified to reflect its AI origin: “This AI-generated ad was paid for by the Sam Jones for Congress Committee.” A stronger version could require: “This AI-generated message is being sent to you by the Sam Jones for Congress Committee because Clogger has predicted that doing so will increase your chances of voting for Sam Jones by 0.0002%.” At the very least, we believe voters deserve to know when it is a bot speaking to them, and they should know why, as well.
The possibility of a system like Clogger shows that the path toward human collective disempowerment may not require some superhuman artificial general intelligence. It might just require overeager campaigners and consultants who have powerful new tools that can effectively push millions of people’s many buttons.
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Archon Fung, Professor of Citizenship and Self-Government, Harvard Kennedy School and Lawrence Lessig, Professor of Law and Leadership, Harvard University
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
STACKER - As Election Day rapidly approaches, the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is in a dead heat. National polls as of early September show Harris at least 3 percentage points above Trump. As of Sept. 11, Harris leads Trump in three of the seven battleground states, giving Harris the advantage to win the election. Trump must secure a few more to solidify his path to 270 electoral votes.
Three independent and third-party candidates remain in the race, as well: Justice for All candidate Cornel West, polling at less than 1% nationally; Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver, with just over 1% support; and third-time Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who is fending off ballot challenges from the Democratic Party and accusations that her campaign is a vote spoiler, polling at about 1% as of late August.
Third-party candidates have appeared throughout the history of American politics, though most have been unable to challenge the dominance of the two-party system in a meaningful way. Stacker examined data from the Federal Election Commission, Pew Research Center, and other sources to explore the history of third-party candidates in U.S. presidential elections.
In 1892, Populist Party candidate James B. Weaver, fueled by farmers' discontent, captured about 9% of the vote, demonstrating the potential of third-party movements.
Teddy Roosevelt's "Bull Moose" campaign in 1912 saw a former president defect from his party. Having just lost the Republican nomination to incumbent William Howard Taft, Roosevelt led the progressive faction of the party to form a new one and run in the general election. While he ultimately failed to win, he took about 27% of the popular vote and 88 electoral votes with him: the largest share of any third-party presidential campaign in American history. The split in Republican votes helped deliver victory to Democrat Woodrow Wilson.
Since then, many third parties have vied for the presidency. None have exceeded Roosevelt's percentage of votes in 1912.
The mid-20th century saw the emergence of parties rooted in regional and ideological divides. George Wallace's segregationist American Independent Party captured 13.5% of the vote in 1968, while Ross Perot's 1992 Independent run, driven by economic concerns, earned 19%.
More recently, foreign influence has added a new layer to third-party dynamics. Russia has been accused of using election interference tactics to support third-party candidates as a means of weakening major party contenders. Russian operatives during the 2016 election cycle attempted to boost Green Party candidate Jill Stein through social media campaigns and misinformation efforts, aiming to siphon votes from Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, according to reports released by the Senate Intelligence Committee.
During the 2024 election cycle, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. challenged President Joe Biden in the Democratic primary but eventually withdrew from the contest to campaign as an Independent in the general election. Just before Biden himself dropped out of the race on July 21, Kennedy was polling in the double digits in some national polls.
Once Vice President Kamala Harris replaced Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket, Kennedy's support plummeted. By the time he dropped out on Aug. 23 and endorsed former President Donald Trump, Kennedy was polling as low as 5%.
Before the presidential race reset after Biden dropped out and Harris accepted the Democratic nomination, Trump was up 3.2 percentage points. By July 24, the race between the Democratic and Republican nominees was neck and neck, with Harris and Trump essentially tied and Kennedy at 5.2%, according to national polling averages tabulated by ABC News.
The momentum continued to build for the new Harris ticket while Trump slumped and Kennedy faded. By the last night of the DNC, Harris had risen to 47.2%, Trump was down to 43.6%, and Kennedy—who dropped out the following day—was down to 4.7%.
Most third-party candidates in the last 40 years have been unable to muster more than 5% of the popular vote. In 1992 and 1996, Independent candidate Ross Perot bucked the trend and got 18.9% and 8.4%, respectively.
A billionaire tech entrepreneur, Perot took his fiscally conservative and socially moderate message directly to viewers in extended infomercials he purchased on major TV networks. His straight-talking and pragmatic style, often illustrated with charts, appealed to middle-class voters. After getting nearly 19% of the popular vote in his first run (although with no electoral votes), he met the threshold to qualify for federal funding when he ran again in 1996.
Requirements for appearing on state ballots and meeting the thresholds for participation in nationally televised presidential debates represent massive hurdles for candidates operating outside the dominant two-party system. Strategic voting appeals by major parties and relentless media scrutiny also contribute to an overall dropoff in third-party support.
While third-party bids from the likes of Reform Party candidate Jesse Ventura in 1998 (as Minnesota governor) and Green Party candidate Ralph Nader in 2000 found varying degrees of success, the campaigns struggled to sustain momentum as Election Day approached. In Nader's case, however, his 97,000 votes in Florida were enough for Democrats to blame him for Bush's official victory there. Bush's razor-thin margin in that state was enough to make him president amid a recount halted by the Supreme Court.
Despite the lack of support in national polls, many Americans look favorably upon the idea of having more political parties. Over a third want more parties to choose from, per Pew, while voter dissatisfaction with the current political status quo is at a three-decade high.
Still, third-party candidates face a difficult climb to get on the ballot, often requiring thousands of signatures and navigating complex state rules. Many have argued that voting third-party only serves to "waste" votes and potentially spoil a race. But FEC guidelines grant candidates partial public funding if a candidate gets at least 5% of the national vote, which could set them up for stronger future runs.
Some critics argue that the entrenched two-party system stifles competition and voter choice and is rigged in favor of the governing parties, fueling growing calls to reform or even abolish it in favor of a more inclusive, multiparty democracy.
In his 1796 Farewell Address, President George Washington cautioned against the rise of political parties and factionalism that could "become potent engines by which cunning, ambitious, and unprincipled men will be enabled to subvert the power of the people and to usurp for themselves the reins of government."
Whether that problem should be addressed by more parties—or fewer—is for voters to decide at the ballot box.
Story editing by Tim Bruns. Additional editing by Nicole Caldwell. Copy editing by Kristen Wegrzyn.
This article is part of U.S. Democracy Day, a nationwide collaborative on Sept. 15, the International Day of Democracy, in which news organizations cover how democracy works and the threats it faces. To learn more, visit usdemocracyday.org.

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