Statewide stay-at-home order, not if but when

Repeatedly this week, Governor J.B. Pritzker has put the citizens of Illinois on notice that he may have no choice but to issue a second statewide lockdown if the COVID-19 metrics continue to rise at an alarming rate. It is clearly obvious by the accelerated surge in positive cases he will in all likelihood announce another mandated shelter-in-place order in days ahead.

"The numbers don't lie. If things don't take a turn in the coming days, we will quickly reach the point when some form of a mandatory stay-at-home order will be all that is left," Governor Pritzker said. "With every fiber of my being, I do not want us to get there. But, right now, that seems where we are headed."

Hospitalizations are at an all-time high with cases increasing by 459% since October 1. As of Wednesday night, there were 5,258 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 around the state. Almost 1,000 individuals, 956 were being cared for in ICUs with 438 of them on ventilators.

In a preemptive move to reduce a possible strain on treatment and the spread of COVID-19, the City of Chicago issued its own stay-at-home advisory starting Monday.

The preliminary seven-day statewide test positivity from November 5-11 exceeds the 8% mitigation trigger point established in the governor's Restore Illinois plan which is now at 13.9%.

On Tuesday, as cases in The Sentinel's area of coverage in Champaign County fell to a two-week low of 23, the Illinois Department of Public Health began asking residents to enter a voluntary a quasi-quarantine by working from home if possible and to only go out for essential activities - such as grocery shopping, visiting a pharmacy or getting a COVID-19 test. The state agency also asked people to limit travel especially to areas experiencing high positivity rates and to limit gatherings - even small groups - that mix households for the next three weeks, including through the Thanksgiving holiday.

As of today, there 43 active cases in the communities The Sentinel serves and and another 600 in Champaign County. The Champaign-Urbana Public Health District is reporting two new additional COVID-19 deaths bringing the total to 39.

The news comes three days after the district agency reported eight deaths between November 5 and 11, including a female and a male patient in their 50s, a female in her 60s, two women in their 70s, two men in their 80s and a 90 year-old male succumbed to the viral infection.

Champaign County, which is in Region 6 in the IDPH COVID-19 Resurgence data tracking, is showing a 7-day rolling average of 2.0. Subtracting out the testing from the University of Illinois' rigorous testing protocols, the county's positivity is at 8.7.

As of Monday only Moultrie County was showing a rolling positivity rate below Champaign's number.

Clark County was at 12.1, Clay 18.1, Coles 12.4, Crawford 9.9, Cumberland 14.7, DeWitt 12.7, Douglas 12.2, Edgar 13.6, Effingham 21.7, Fayette 26.7, Ford 11.6, Iroquois 18.2, Jasper 11.8, Lawrence 11.3, Macon 16, Moultrie 8.6, Piatt 12.6, Richland 16, Shelby 14.2 and Vermilion County was at 12.2 on Monday.

Fayette County record some of the highest single-day positivity in the county with four days between October 30 and November 9 above 30.0.

Last Friday, 15 tests performed in Crawford County yielded seven confirmed cases for the highest single-day positivity of 46.7.

On Tuesday Pritzker asked his constituents to show restraint and do the right thing voluntarily to fight the surge and need for him to issue another shelter-in-place order.

"It's critical to remember that nothing makes a bigger deterrence in this pandemic than when a community decides to protect your own by wearing masks, by avoiding gatherings, by temporarily closing high-risk, high-exposure business until we get to a place where it opens again."

County records 4 Covid-19 deaths, state could see another stay-at-home order

While the state's positivity numbers continue to grow at a record pace for the fourth straight day, the number of active Coronavirus cases in our area have shrunk from a high of 53 on Sunday, November 1, to 27 as of today.

The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) today reported 12,623 new confirmed and probable cases of COVID-19 in Illinois, including 79 additional deaths. Four of the 79 individuals who passed away were from Champaign County.

The Champaign-Urbana Public Health District announced the four COVID-19 deaths included a female in her 70s, two males in their 80s and one 90-year-old male. The county death toll is now at 37.

Yesterday, Governor J.B. Pritzker hinted that a statewide stay-at-home order is back on the table after ruling it out four days earlier as the state wrestles with bringing the recent COVID-19 surge under control. While he did not specify a time or trigger during his press briefing, it is likely

"I'm not looking at the broader mitigation of stay-at-home as something I would do in the coming days or week, but I can't guarantee you what it looks like two weeks from now or three weeks from now - I just don't know," he said on November 6.

Yesterday, his message was more apprehensive saying that another stay-at-home order could be issued if the state's metrics continue to rise. He made it clear it was something he wants to avoid, but may be unavoidable given the rising tide of the infectious virus nationwide.

"As I've told you, for days, you know, we are looking at really all the possibilities - the possibility that we would have to go back a phase, the possibility that we would have to ultimately have a stay-at-home order - those are not things that I prefer to do. But those are things that these numbers are not sustainable."

Illinois Public Health Department given teeth to fight businesses defying Executive Order

According a story from Public Broadcasting Service affiliate WTTW-Chicago, the state has added a penalty clause to its COVID-19 emergency order aimed at businesses non-essential business that defy the Governor J.B. Pritzker's March Executive Order.

"Members of Pritzker's cabinet described it as a new and gentler "tool" that law enforcement can use to keep businesses closed during the coronavirus pandemic – and therefore keep people safe – that’s less severe than other options, like closure orders or stripping establishments of their liquor licenses," WTTW reports. "Pritzker’s top attorney, Ann Spillane, admitted a misdemeanor charge could be seen as “intimidating” especially if it was targeted at bartenders or servers. But because it's instead aimed at businesses, she said there’s no threat of jail time and believes it’s a "less dramatic" step than some other alternatives."

The amendment comes just days after The Zone in St. Joseph was ordered closed by a Temporary Restraining Order issued by Judge Tom Difanis.

Unless legislators on the Joint Committee on Administrative Rules oversight committee vote to reject the addition, which took effect on Friday because it is classified as an "emergency", the new rules will be in effect for the next 148 days.

Viewpoint: Do your self a solid, Get that green thumb on

By Clark Brooks, Editor & Publisher

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I've seen a lot of grumblings over the last five weeks or so of shelling with friends and followers on social media unclear on why nurseries, hardware stores and large chains operations with garden departments like Farm & Fleet, Wal-Mart and Meijer are considered essential in Governor J.B. Pritzker's executive order to shelter-in-place and other stores that offer similar merchandise but without the garden centers were forced to close.

There is a perfectly logical reason and here's why: These stores are deemed essential not because the sell luscious philodendrons or gorgeous varieties of potted of irises and tulips, but because they are the main source pandemic gold - seeds. Specifically, seeds that produce fruits and vegetables.

Seeds are absolutely essential in catastrophic disaster and pandemic management. Also necessary to the growing process fertilizer, herbicides and hardware is available in these retail outlets. When Michigan forced nurseries in its state to close during in their stay-at-home order, that was a pandemic fail.

So why are seeds so important? Duh. So that people can grow and harvest food their own food.

If I owned or lived in a house with a lot of any size, I would grow as much food as I could squeeze in the available area this summer. What I can't eat, can or store by late September, I would happily share with my neighbors or those less fortunate and in need.

You might not consider gardening a good idea when you can order online and do a curbside pickup a few days later, but during a pandemic gardening is a solid investment.

Contrary to popular belief, pandemics don't disappear overnight or in months. The Spanish Flu lasted from January 1918 until December 1920, Cholera attacked the world population in three waves from 1832 to 1866 and a small pox epidemic broke out from 1633 to 1634. Historically, they can linger for years until the herd, those of us with superior immune systems are left still standing.

Growing your own food helps your household budget fight inflationary and predatory pricing when inventories wane due to the inability of farmers or produce companies to transport goods to marketplaces. Growing your own food can help stretch unemployment dollars if an employer is forced to downsize or trim hours.

If you haven't already noticed, food prices have been increasing nationwide. Buyers are spending 2.6% more on food in April. According ABC Channel 7, prices rose 5.8% compared to a year ago in Chicago. Prices for meat, poultry, fish and eggs have increased 4.7%.

This September, why spend $6.89 on a pound of tomatoes when you can go in the backyard in pick them and a couple bell peppers for homemade salsa for free.

Governor okays the opening of non-essential businesses, many can reopen on May 1

Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker announced today that he will extend the state's stay-at-home order set to expire on April 30 until the end of May. The extension did however come with a relaxation in a few restrictions.

"Make no mistake, Illinois has saved lives. By staying home and social distancing, we have kept our infection and death rates for the months of March and April thousands below the rates projected had we not implemented these mitigation strategies," Gov. Pritzker said.

The number of confirmed cases in Champaign County is at an even 100 patients. Seventy-nine people have recovered and five members of the community have died as a result of the CV-19 virus. As of today the Champaign-Urbana Public Health reports there are 16 active cases in the community.

"I know how badly we all want our normal lives back. But this is the part where we have to dig in and understand that the sacrifices we’ve made as a state to avoid a worst-case scenario are working — and we need to keep going a little while longer to finish the job," Gov. Pritzker said in his briefing today.

"If we lifted the stay at home order tomorrow, we would see our deaths per day shoot up into the thousands by the end of May. And, that would last well into the summer."

The modified order includes increased flexibility for residents and non-essential businesses, and will require face coverings to be worn while in public. According to a statement from Gov. Pritzker, the new executive order will include more flexibility provisions for many non-essential businesses to get back on their feet.

Here are some of the changes:

OUTDOOR RECREATION: State parks will begin a phased re-opening under guidance from the Department of Natural Resources. Fishing and boating in groups of no more than two people will be permitted. A list of parks that will be open on May 1 and additional guidelines can be found on the Illinois Department of Natural Resources website HERE. Golf will be permitted under strict safety guidelines provided by the Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity (DCEO) and when ensuring that social distancing is followed.

NEW ESSENTIAL BUSINESSES: Greenhouses, garden centers and nurseries may re-open as essential businesses. These stores must follow social distancing requirements and must require that employees and customers wear a face covering. Animal grooming services may also re-open.

NON-ESSENTIAL RETAIL: Retail stores not designated as non-essential businesses and operations may re-open to fulfill telephone and online orders through pick-up outside the store and delivery.

FACE COVERINGS: Beginning on May 1, individuals will be required to wear a face-covering or a mask when in a public place where they can't maintain a six-foot social distance. Face-coverings will be required in public indoor spaces, such as stores. This new requirement applies to all individuals over the age of two who are able to medically tolerate a face-covering or a mask.

ESSENTIAL BUSINESSES AND MANUFACTURING: Essential businesses and manufacturers will be required to provide face-coverings to all employees who are not able to maintain six-feet of social distancing, as well as follow new requirements that maximize social distancing and prioritize the well-being of employees and customers. This will include occupancy limits for essential businesses and precautions such as staggering shifts and operating only essential lines for manufacturers.

SCHOOLS: Educational institutions may allow and establish procedures for pick-up of necessary supplies or student belongings. Dormitory move-outs must follow public health guidelines, including social distancing.

Statewide, Illinois reported 1,826 new cases and another 123 deaths from coronavirus today. There have been 36,934 patients who have tested positive for coronavirus in Illinois, including 1,688 lives lost due the viral infection.

Rational regard: Will shelling be the new normal?

By Clark Brooks, Editor & Publisher

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Shelling

It is the word I started using about a week or so ago in informal conversations to refer to sheltering-in-place. In our homes and apartments we are much like hermit crabs, turtles and clams safely tucked within our sanctuaries from a virus to avoid infecting or becoming infected with the coronavirus.

There are early indications that shelling may become the new normal - at least for a while longer than we all care to think about.

First, let me say I'm not a fan of shelling. I fully understand the urgent need to shelter in place to prevent family, friends and customers, as well any other American from contracting the Covid-19 virus.

Nature's predatory culling the herd of the human species is extremely disconcerting. Personally, I have no desire to inflict the severe, life-altering symptoms, or ultimately death, on and anyone. And hopefully, neither should you.

A few days ago Governor J.B. Pritzker hinted during his daily coronavirus briefing that Illinoisans may be shelling past the April 30 date established in Executive Order 16 back on April 1.

"I think everybody needs to think seriously about canceling large summer events," he said. "From my perspective today, I do not see how we are going to have large gatherings of people again until we have a vaccine, which is months and months away. I would not risk having large groups of people getting together anywhere. I think that's hard for everybody to hear, but that's just a fact."

Days before Gov. Pritzker's press conference the committee for the annual Freedom Celebration in Champaign-Urbana for 2020 was officially canceled. The decision came on the heels of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign decision to cancel all university summer camps through July 10, 2020 and all summer events held on campus until further notice.

Two days ago, Illinois State University President Larry Dietz announced that all summer camps, conferences, events, and activities held on campus scheduled through July 31, 2020 have been postponed or cancelled. Students who want to take summer classes at ISU will now take them online.

America improvises, adapts, and then overcomes. It has been what this country has done better than any other since 1776.

While Eastern Illinois University, home to the Illinois High School Association's boys and girls state track meets, has not released any information regarding campus events as of yet, it is likely administrators will follow ISU and the University of Illinois' lead and adopt the same policy through the beginning of their next fiscal year. It goes without saying should the EIU administration take the same approach, it will deliver a serious blow to the IHSA and dreams of thousands of high school track athletes throughout Illinois who continued training and held on to the hope of competing this season.

The response to COVID-19 by universities around the state, given many are the sites for IHSA sectional and supersectional contests, is just one more nail - I pray that I'm wrong - for next week's coffin to bury the spring 2020 sports season in American history.

Shelling does appear to be successful measure in the mitigation of CV-19. The spread of the Coronavirus in Champaign County had been minimal compared to other cities around the country. There have been just 21 new confirmed cases reported by the Champaign-Urbana Public Health District in the last seven days. Currently there are just 40 active cases in the county with another 40 that were diagnosed with the infection, now listed as recovered. Eight people are hospitalized according the CUPHD site which is updated daily.

Already, there are 15 counties in Illinois with more than 70 confirmed cases. The Illinois Department of Public Health reports that Cook has 5,242 cases, Kane lists 339 and nearby McLean County has 75 cases.

It is neither pleasant or convenient, but shelling seems to be working for Illinois. The question is how much longer will we need to stay sheltered in place. When will things go back to normal?

Last Thursday, Vice President Mike Pence's tone was not exactly optimistic.

"No one wants to reopen America more than President Donald Trump," Pence said, hinting that reopening the country at the end of April are perhaps unrealistic. He added that the White House would consult collected data to "inform the president’s decision and timing."

While I am praying for the exact opposite, I'm confident we will still be shelling after May 1 when Illinois current executive mandate ends.

Around April 24, give or take a few days, I expect the governor to announce we will need to continue shelling for another 21 days despite a gradual decrease in confirmed cases. Logically, this move would be justifiable in light of border states like Missouri and Wisconsin started shelling about two weeks after Illinois. Then there Iowa, one of a handful of states that has not instituted a stay-at-home order, obviously banking on the herd immunity strategy to combat the spread of the virus. Contaminated individuals traveling from or transporting goods through those states could cause resurgent hot spots or flare ups in Illinois.

I think it would be wise, especially if the antibody tests or a vaccine is not made available to the general public soon, to mentally preparing oneself for the inevitable roll of several back-to-back shelter in place extensions until at least July.

If the shelling works as planned, in three months we will be able to roam the planet freely again.

We will be free to laugh in the company of friends and family at a wedding, bar or outdoor venue. Free to listen to live music with hundreds of fans. Free to celebrate birthdays, anniversaries or the passing of a loved one. Free to touch, kiss and hug once again.

But, for how long? Behavior biologists, virologists and microbiologists say expect COVID-19 to make encore appearance months (may be weeks) after we reach the all clear level. Reluctantly, after the taste of fresh air and the warmth of the sun across our faces, we will be required to return to our shells once again when infections from the coronavirus rise again.

America improvises, adapts, and then overcomes. It has been what this country has done better than any other since 1776 and counting. With a little experience under our belts, returning to our shells, won't be easier, but it will probably feel almost normal.