Commentary |Trump's second assassination attempt is shocking, but attempts on presidents' lives are not rare in US history

by Shannon Bow O'Brien
    The University of Texas at Austin



Former President Donald Trump survived his second assassination attempt on Sept. 15, 2024, marking the latest chapter in a long history book. Presidential assassination attempts, whether successful or not, are fairly commonplace in American history.

There have been 45 men elected president since the country’s founding. And 40% of them have experienced known attempts on their lives. Four presidents – Abraham Lincoln, James A. Garfield, William McKinley and John F. Kennedy – have been assassinated.

Image: Gerd Altmann/Pixabay
While Trump and Theodore Roosevelt were both former presidents when they were shot, Ronald Reagan was injured while in office, with a would-be assassin almost ending Reagan’s life in 1981.

Thirteen others – Andrew Jackson, William Howard Taft, Herbert Hoover, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Harry Truman, Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Joe Biden – have had known plots or failed attempts to end their lives.

Many were subject to multiple attempts, and it is likely the public was never informed of other attempts upon them or other presidents.

Presidents symbolize the ideals of ourselves as Americans. They often act as the physical embodiment of our country, their political party and its values. When individuals are unhappy with the United States or its policies, some choose to express their opinions in violent ways. Those who choose to assassinate a president inadvertently humanize the very presidents they want to kill.



A common thread

Every presidential assassination or attempt has been made with a firearm. With the exception of Gerald Ford’s two attempted assassins, all the perpetrators have been male.

This includes Trump’s two assailants, men who were once enthralled by but seemingly grew disenchanted with aspects of modern politics.

The Secret Service thwarted an armed man hiding at a Trump golf course in Palm Beach, Florida, on Sept. 15. The Secret Service fired at the person, who fled in a car before he was apprehended and arrested.

This came just two months after Trump was wounded at a Pennsylvania rally on July 13 by a young man who attempted to kill Trump with a gunshot to the head.

Many presidential assassination attempts seem incoherent to anyone except the perpetrator.

A man named Charles Guiteau killed Garfield in 1881 because he wanted to be awarded a patronage position in government.

John Wilkes Booth killed Lincoln as part of a larger plot attempting to create chaos to help reignite the “Southern cause” and support for slavery. On the same night Lincoln was killed in 1865, his secretary of state, William Seward, was attacked but survived.

At the same time, the plot was for then-Vice President Andrew Johnson to also be killed by another man, George Atzerodt, who instead got drunk and threw the knife in a gutter.

Booth and his co-conspirators hoped that these politicians’ almost simultaneous deaths would throw the Union into disarray, with an unclear path of succession. Their plan fell apart, and with Johnson alive, the nation’s clear path of presidential succession remained intact.

A near miss

Half a century later, while former President Theodore Roosevelt was campaigning for a third presidential term in 1912, he was shot in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

Though he was shot at almost point-blank range, Roosevelt was, in a way, saved by his poor eyesight and long-winded nature. Roosevelt had a 50-page speech folded in his pocket, as well as his steel eyeglass case. Both items slowed the bullet enough that it just entered his chest but not deeper than the muscle.

Roosevelt famously proceeded to give a 90-minute speech before leaving for the hospital.

One of the closest comparisons to Trump’s two recent assassination attempts is when two women tried to kill President Gerald Ford in September 1975.

Both Trump and Ford were the targets of well-publicized assassination attempts within a short period of time, and both were targeted by individuals with logically unclear motives.

Lynnette “Squeaky” Fromme, a one-time member of the Manson family, a well-known cult in the 1970s, attempted to kill Ford in order, she claimed, to save California redwood trees.

At the time, the Environmental Protection Agency was warning people about worsening smog’s effects on the environment, leading her to believe assassination was the only way to preserve the trees. Fromme dressed entirely in red, went to Sacramento where the president was visiting, aimed and fired at him within a 2-foot range.

Except the gun didn’t fire.

Bystanders heard a click, since she had not put a round in the chamber, likely because she did not know much about guns. After that first attempted shot, Secret Service intervened. Later, Fromme claimed she did not want to shoot the president.

Seventeen days later, on Sept. 22 in San Francisco, Sara Jane Moore shot at Ford from about 40 feet away and missed. Her second shot missed as well, this time because a bystander, Oliver Sipple, grabbed the gun, forcing the shot to go wide, injuring a taxi driver.

Finally, Reagan survived an assassination attempt by John Hinckley Jr. on March 30, 1981. Hinckley was obsessed with the popular film “Taxi Driver” and, in particular, the character played by actress Jodie Foster.

He believed that if he could impress Foster, she would date him. As Reagan left the Washington Hilton hotel, Hinckley fired six shots in two seconds. One shot deflected off the car and into the president’s left side, hitting his lung. One of the funnier lines Reagan would later repeat was born that day, when he looked at doctors prepping for surgery and said, “I just hope you’re Republicans.” One doctor replied, “Today, Mr. President, we’re all Republicans.”

The best and worst of us

Throughout history, American presidents and occasionally candidates have been targeted by gunmen and other potential attackers to express their unhappiness about the government. The rationales for these assassins’ actions vary from simply chaos to delusions anointing the assassin, or would-be assassin, a heroic main character.

Presidential assassinations reflect the best and the worst of people simultaneously. The violence itself shows the worst of society, but Americans often seem at their best in the aftermath. Like Reagan’s surgeons once recognized, politics should never supplant humanity or be more valued than a person’s health and safety.The Conversation


Shannon Bow O'Brien is an Associate Professor of Instruction at The University of Texas at Austin.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.


History of third-party votes in US presidential elections

STACKER - As Election Day rapidly approaches, the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is in a dead heat. National polls as of early September show Harris at least 3 percentage points above Trump. As of Sept. 11, Harris leads Trump in three of the seven battleground states, giving Harris the advantage to win the election. Trump must secure a few more to solidify his path to 270 electoral votes.

Three independent and third-party candidates remain in the race, as well: Justice for All candidate Cornel West, polling at less than 1% nationally; Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver, with just over 1% support; and third-time Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who is fending off ballot challenges from the Democratic Party and accusations that her campaign is a vote spoiler, polling at about 1% as of late August.

Third-party candidates have appeared throughout the history of American politics, though most have been unable to challenge the dominance of the two-party system in a meaningful way. Stacker examined data from the Federal Election Commission, Pew Research Center, and other sources to explore the history of third-party candidates in U.S. presidential elections.

In 1892, Populist Party candidate James B. Weaver, fueled by farmers' discontent, captured about 9% of the vote, demonstrating the potential of third-party movements.

Teddy Roosevelt's "Bull Moose" campaign in 1912 saw a former president defect from his party. Having just lost the Republican nomination to incumbent William Howard Taft, Roosevelt led the progressive faction of the party to form a new one and run in the general election. While he ultimately failed to win, he took about 27% of the popular vote and 88 electoral votes with him: the largest share of any third-party presidential campaign in American history. The split in Republican votes helped deliver victory to Democrat Woodrow Wilson.

Since then, many third parties have vied for the presidency. None have exceeded Roosevelt's percentage of votes in 1912.

The mid-20th century saw the emergence of parties rooted in regional and ideological divides. George Wallace's segregationist American Independent Party captured 13.5% of the vote in 1968, while Ross Perot's 1992 Independent run, driven by economic concerns, earned 19%.

More recently, foreign influence has added a new layer to third-party dynamics. Russia has been accused of using election interference tactics to support third-party candidates as a means of weakening major party contenders. Russian operatives during the 2016 election cycle attempted to boost Green Party candidate Jill Stein through social media campaigns and misinformation efforts, aiming to siphon votes from Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, according to reports released by the Senate Intelligence Committee.

During the 2024 election cycle, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. challenged President Joe Biden in the Democratic primary but eventually withdrew from the contest to campaign as an Independent in the general election. Just before Biden himself dropped out of the race on July 21, Kennedy was polling in the double digits in some national polls.

Once Vice President Kamala Harris replaced Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket, Kennedy's support plummeted. By the time he dropped out on Aug. 23 and endorsed former President Donald Trump, Kennedy was polling as low as 5%.

people voting
Photo: Quang Vu Ngoc/Pixabay

Before the presidential race reset after Biden dropped out and Harris accepted the Democratic nomination, Trump was up 3.2 percentage points. By July 24, the race between the Democratic and Republican nominees was neck and neck, with Harris and Trump essentially tied and Kennedy at 5.2%, according to national polling averages tabulated by ABC News.

The momentum continued to build for the new Harris ticket while Trump slumped and Kennedy faded. By the last night of the DNC, Harris had risen to 47.2%, Trump was down to 43.6%, and Kennedy—who dropped out the following day—was down to 4.7%.

Third-party candidates face an uphill battle

Most third-party candidates in the last 40 years have been unable to muster more than 5% of the popular vote. In 1992 and 1996, Independent candidate Ross Perot bucked the trend and got 18.9% and 8.4%, respectively.

A billionaire tech entrepreneur, Perot took his fiscally conservative and socially moderate message directly to viewers in extended infomercials he purchased on major TV networks. His straight-talking and pragmatic style, often illustrated with charts, appealed to middle-class voters. After getting nearly 19% of the popular vote in his first run (although with no electoral votes), he met the threshold to qualify for federal funding when he ran again in 1996.

Requirements for appearing on state ballots and meeting the thresholds for participation in nationally televised presidential debates represent massive hurdles for candidates operating outside the dominant two-party system. Strategic voting appeals by major parties and relentless media scrutiny also contribute to an overall dropoff in third-party support.

While third-party bids from the likes of Reform Party candidate Jesse Ventura in 1998 (as Minnesota governor) and Green Party candidate Ralph Nader in 2000 found varying degrees of success, the campaigns struggled to sustain momentum as Election Day approached. In Nader's case, however, his 97,000 votes in Florida were enough for Democrats to blame him for Bush's official victory there. Bush's razor-thin margin in that state was enough to make him president amid a recount halted by the Supreme Court.

Calls to expand beyond the two-party system grow

Despite the lack of support in national polls, many Americans look favorably upon the idea of having more political parties. Over a third want more parties to choose from, per Pew, while voter dissatisfaction with the current political status quo is at a three-decade high.

Still, third-party candidates face a difficult climb to get on the ballot, often requiring thousands of signatures and navigating complex state rules. Many have argued that voting third-party only serves to "waste" votes and potentially spoil a race. But FEC guidelines grant candidates partial public funding if a candidate gets at least 5% of the national vote, which could set them up for stronger future runs.

Some critics argue that the entrenched two-party system stifles competition and voter choice and is rigged in favor of the governing parties, fueling growing calls to reform or even abolish it in favor of a more inclusive, multiparty democracy.

In his 1796 Farewell Address, President George Washington cautioned against the rise of political parties and factionalism that could "become potent engines by which cunning, ambitious, and unprincipled men will be enabled to subvert the power of the people and to usurp for themselves the reins of government."

Whether that problem should be addressed by more parties—or fewer—is for voters to decide at the ballot box.


Story editing by Tim Bruns. Additional editing by Nicole Caldwell. Copy editing by Kristen Wegrzyn. 

This article is part of U.S. Democracy Day, a nationwide collaborative on Sept. 15, the International Day of Democracy, in which news organizations cover how democracy works and the threats it faces. To learn more, visit usdemocracyday.org.



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